Similar results are also found if the LCCC model is used as the prior female forecast. However, due to different biological and non-biological factors, male mortality stays at higher levels. We also found that female mortality trends and the ratio trends also behave roughly independently.
Thorslund M. If we first look at the Netherlands, the average logged SR shows a clear peak and a clear hump. Full size image.
Genus Journal of Population Sciences74 Despite the ASDR for both sexes being correlated, the trend for females and the ratio trends should be uncorrelated for Eq. The box plots show that the residuals have symmetric patterns at most modeling and forecasting us sex differentials in mortality in Independence, with the medians centered around 0, suggesting that the model generally estimates quite well the SR trends at each age.
Van Oyen, H. The uncertainty of the prior female forecast will thus be reflected in the uncertainty of the male forecast and should thus lead to wider PI for males.
Assuming independence at each age between both parts of the model, the PI can be found by adding to each simulation from the female forecast, the simulations from the SR forecast, as presented in Eq. The other sex-coherent OSC models are models considering the coherence between sexes, and which have been previously developed.
Many sex-independent forecast models, listed in Comparison with other models section as 1a, b, d, e, used as prior models, are also based on an SVD and time indices extrapolation, similar to the LC model. The advantage of modeling and forecasting us sex differentials in mortality in Independence SR model is especially visible when the model is compared with an independent or other sex-coherent counterpart, e.
Also, the model cannot capture selection effects acting on specific cohorts and how they affect time trends in mortality and sex ratios.
International Journal of Epidemiology. Published online Dec 3. Thatcher, R.